Lies, damned lies, and statistics

First some insight into how my twisted mind works. I rarely believe any bar chart, pie-chart, percentage I see presented unless I can access the raw data myself and draw my own conclusions. I’m not a statistician by trade or education but I’ve spent a lot of time running surveys and analyzing large data sets; so I have the benefit of some experience.

Replay Solutions just published a survey about Java Platform usage. The questioning, subsequent analysis and presentation of the results was poor IMO. But they did one thing right – they provided the raw data. Thanks for that.

There’s a posting on TSS entitled “Why is JBoss at the bottom of this list ???”. In typical TSS style – few people actually bothered to read the survey results or question them and a long and rather pointless thread ensues. This post is an expansion of my comment at the end of the TSS thread.

The original report has this chart :

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Update – Sunday 4/11/10

My initial (very quick) analysis was wrong. My formula for searching for different categories had a basic reg-ex flaw so I was over-counting JBoss by fair bit. I’ve fixed that mistake (spreadsheet here) and also removed duplicates (responses with both “JB + TC” and “Tomcat” or “JBoss” – I’d already admitted to this minor double counting (in the comments) – the original author’s analysis still includes this error.

So the ranking is now the same as the original author’s but the %’s are different. My apologies to IBM for originally stealing their #2 spot 😉 By the way – Red Hat fully supports both Tomcat and JBoss AS – so #1 and #3 rankings and being able to satisfy 87% of the market isn’t such a bad result for us.

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[As percentages of respondents – that’s : Tomcat = 59%, Websphere = 39%, JBoss = 28%, Weblogic = 23%, Other = 19%]

These rankings (WAS above JBoss) are more representative of larger organizations (where both WAS and WLS have traditionally been stronger) – the latest Eclipse survey shows a similar break-out. Unlike the Eclipse survey – this survey doesn’t have any information on the respondents and they seem to be largely self-selected.

My original points still stand – poor questioning, poor analysis and presentation are common in these kinds of surveys. Always ask for the source data !

JBoss, Jobs, Jobs, Jobs !

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The JBoss team is expanding again – we’re looking to fill four PM / PMM roles – strong preference for location is Greater Boston (Westford, MA) :

Product Manager – Application Platforms

Product Marketing Manager – Middleware

Solutions Marketing Manager – Middleware

Technical Marketing Manager – Middleware

Submit your resume online via the above links and ping me if we’ve worked together in the past.


Running – Part 5

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Lef to Right : Iain, Rich, Craig enjoy a post race “sports drink”

Last Sunday I completed the ATT Half Marathon (or Full Pikermi if you prefer). This series of posts is mostly for my own reference but if you’re interested you can read the rest here.

My personal goal was to finish in 1:50 minutes – the time of my last Half (2002?, Bristol). I managed to maintain a good pace for the first nine miles (sub 8.30 and even one sub 8 minute mile) but then basically ran out of energy and the last 4 miles were a struggle. I went pretty light on breakfast and a second Banana would probably have made all the difference. On my previous long runs – energy had never been a problem.

My official time was 1:57:01 – short of my goal but bearing in mind that just a couple of months ago I couldn’t even run 4 miles without stopping; I don’t think it was all that bad and shows that pretty much anyone can run a half with some dedication and a training plan.

This was the first ATT Marathon and I thought it was very well organized and as I’ve mentioned before – the ATT is a great place to run. My only criticism was the early start (7am) and the lack of parking meant that it wasn’t really possible for my family to cheer me across the line. Free beer and pizza after the race made up for the shortcoming though.

I plan to stick with the running – it’s by far the best way to keep fit, burn fat and clear your head. I plan to do the City of Oaks Half in November and maybe one other Half or 10k over the summer. You’ll likely find me on the ATT at least once a month for the longer runs.

I did consider doing a full marathon this year but I’m pretty sure I couldn’t do it without injuring my already knackered knees, feet and ankles. However, I am thinking pretty seriously about attempting a Triathlon this year – if anyone has advice on how to get started – let me know !

Oracle’s loss could be Rackspace’s gain

I previously highlighted the fate of OpenSSO – a test case for Oracle and a living experiment for Open Source – possibly allowing us to understand how or whether a project really can outlive it’s corporate backer.

Well, it seems that another piece of the Sun OSS portfolio has floated adrift from the Oracle mother-ship. Some of the key developers have left / are leaving Oracle and have joined Rackspace. With this Rackspace essentially becomes the guardian of one of the major development branches of MySQL. It would be interesting to know what Oracle would price their MySQL assets at today.

Happy Birthday Apache HTTP Server

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Apparently it was Apache Web Server’s 15th birthday yesterday – congratulations to anyone who’s ever been involved in the project. I doubt any would have thought that 15 years on, Apache would have become the dominant Web Server on the Web and the foundation of one of the most successful and recognized Open Source forges. For a history of the Apache Web Server and the Apache Software Foundation, head over to the ASF Blog.

Red Hat has been a supporter of Apache Web Server for a long time and has shipped and supported a version in its Red Hat Enterprise Linux for as long as I’ve been noodling with it. Last year we started shipping a standalone, multi-platform distribution as well – JBoss Enterprise Web Server. Earlier today we released the latest version of it and expanded our support for Apache HTTP Server to 14 different Operating System / architecture combinations. The exact component versions are listed here and there’s more information in the Release Notes. If you’re deploying Apache HTTP or Tomcat at scale – Red Hat also supports management of Apache HTTP Server and Tomcat alongside all JBoss products via JBoss Operations Network.

Running Part 4

Here’s part 4 of my running log – my 10 week journey to train for a half marathon – something I haven’t attempted for over a decade. The log is mostly for my own reference but if you’re interested you can read Part 1 ,  2 and 3 as well.

Well the running is going pretty well – I’m starting week 8 with a rest day after a long run yesterday (on the American Tobacco Trail) – I was scheduled to do 11 miles, aiming to do 12 and ended up doing 13.68. This made up for the previous week which was a complete wash-out in terms of mileage due to travel and picking up a nasty bug between Boston and Raleigh.

I have 2 more weeks and weather permitting should be able to get 2 more long runs in before I start tapering down before the run on March 21st – I’d like to diverge from my schedule and see if I can do 16-18 miles – if I can, then I’m going to sign up for the City of Oaks full marathon in November.

One last thing – if you run in the Cary / Raleigh area and haven’t already – make your next run the American Tobacco Trail – it’s mostly flat; it’s a nice even surface, great scenery and shaded from the sun – there are also mile markers to keep you motivated. It’s pretty much the perfect place to run IMO.


JBoss AS 6.0 Milestone 2 released

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The JBoss AS team moved to a more rapid and incremental release cycle with the 6.x family and the second milestone was released today (release notes, download, repo.). The release was lead by Brian Stansberry and new features include :

  • Servlet 3.0 / JBoss Web 3.0
  • JPA 2.0 / Hibernate 3.5
  • JAX-RS 1.0 / RESTEasy 2.0
  • Microcontainer 2.2

More detail in blogs from Ales, Brian, Steve and Rémy. Congratulations to Brian on another on-time release and good luck to Jason and team for the next milestone release in a couple of months time.

Running Part 3

Here’s part 3 of my running log – my 10 week journey to train for a half marathon – something I haven’t attempted for over a decade. The log is mostly for my own reference but if you’re interested you can read Part 1 and  Part 2 as well.

Yesterday I completed my fourth full week of training. It’s going pretty well – I’m still slightly ahead of plan in terms of distance and with yesterday’s 7-miler I made some good progress on pace as well. I’ve mostly been running on the hamster wheel in the gym due to cold weather and travel – but that has allowed me to get a better sense of my pace. Over the next 5 weeks I start to up the mileage and hopefully I can increase my speed sufficiently to maintain a constant time-investment as time is something I don’t have a surplus of. Yet again, I’ll be working my running schedule around my travel this week so will have to cram a lot of miles in at the weekend. I’ve also notice that I’m losing about 1lb a week – that cumulative advantage should help as I start on the longer runs.

Immortality of Code / Life beyond Snoracle

One of the benefits we talk about with Open Source is that the license and collaborative nature can offer some protection for users should the main supporter disappear. Rarely has this been put to test but here’s an example that came across in my feeds today. OpenSSO was a Sun project that Oracle seemingly killed last week as part of their assimilation / refactoring process. In less than a week, it seems there’s already a commercial organization twilling support the code-base. From ForgeRock’s web page :

ForgeRock OpenAM is the market leading open source Authentication, Authorization, Entitlement and Federation product. ForgeRock is providing the community with a new home for Sun Microsystems’ OpenSSO product.

Good luck to ForgeRock – I recognize quite a few of the names as fellow Sun / iPlanet / Netscape Alumni. It will be interesting to see how this plays out – it got ugly the last time something like this happened.

Oracle and the Java Opportunity

I guess there’s a chance that we’ll know more tomorrow but regarding the future of Java under Oracle’s control – I’m still neutral to optimistic and sticking to what I said 6 months ago :

DZone: With Oracle’s acquisition of Sun, are you concerned at all about some of the potential changes that will come as a result, to the governance and licensing options to the OpenJDK?

Rich: I’m really not that concerned. There are all sorts of scenarios that people are suggesting. I still believe Oracle will do the right thing. They have far too much to lose, by either accidently or purposely sabotaging OpenJDK. They have a very healthy business based around Java. Creating unrest, creating any kind of distrust or fragmentation of the Java community really isn’t going to help Oracle. So I think they’ll do the right thing. I also think they probably have the ability to invest in Java more than Sun had over the last five years at least. Sun kind of had some fairly pressing financial issues. I think that, above all else, probably hindered some of the progress of Java over the last five years.

So overall, I’m coming in neutral to slightly optimistic. If things do go awry, I’m sure Red Hat the rest of the Java community will step up and help Oracle to get back on track. So, yeah, I’m pretty comfortable with it.

My only real concerns is that Oracle understands products and monetization much better than they understand community and collaboration so I think a misstep or two are more likely to occur than Oracle purposefully sabotaging Java. Harming Java will devalue their investment and their chances of getting a decent return.

On the positive side – I think there’s still huge growth potential for the Java platform – I see no reason why it can’t become the dominant standard for the enterprise – I personally think we’re at the start of the decline of Microsoft and Java is the only viable alternative to Microsoft’s enterprise foothold. Microsoft’s enterprise presence is not insignificant but neither is it guaranteed – it’s largely based on an historically well adopted OS and Microsoft’s missteps in that area are pretty well known by now .

Java needs some strong leadership, investment and a open, vibrant and growing community.

I raising my mug of tea to The Next Decade of Java !