Rich Sharples' Blog » adoption

Downloads, Adoption and Cumulative Advantage

sharps — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 21:34:57 +0000

According to Dimitris – our JBoss AS 5 downloads had a pretty big bump in December and digging a little into the SourceForge stats a few other things jumped out. First December 2008 was the second biggest month for downloads of JBoss AS (all versions) since 2003 and the downloads (all versions) have topped 100k/month for the last 4 months – that’s the best 4 months ever. January got off to a good start as well so hopefully the trend will continue. When you add all the downloads for the CR and Beta releases of AS 5.0 – it’s around 250k and that’s already more than 4.2.0, 4.2.1 and 4.2.2 (over much longer periods). So JBoss AS 5.0 is shaping up to be one of the fastest adopted versions JBoss has ever shipped.

So why should I care about downloads ? Well downloads are a pretty good proxy for adoption and adoption is key to realizing Open Source’s advantage. Every download is an opportunity for someone to try the technology and every time someone installs the technology there’s an opportunity for it to be used in a new and creative way and surface previously unseen deficiencies. And every time a deficiency is uncovered there’s an opportunity for the technology to improve. Multiply that by hundreds of thousands and add in rapid release cycles and it’s easy to imagine the cycle repeating as technology improvements drive greater adoption and greater adoption improves the technology. And that’s the cumulative advantage that OSS has over the traditional proprietary product lifecycle.

So go ahead – download AS 5 and see if you can break it.

Crazy Great Software

sharps — Fri, 02 May 2008 16:44:37 +0000

As I’ve said before, success in the new ‘adoption led’ era of software is about maintaining a great experience – like this example. I don’t care whether Rob is a paying customer or not today – what I do care about is his future potential to influence – multiply that by 20 million. Let’s hope we can keep Rob and millions of others like him happy.

Gradual Engagement

sharps — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 02:34:26 +0000

This is article explains the shortcomings of the way web application providers typically engage potential customers – ie. the web form. I wonder how much time people spend filling in these dumb forms (never to return to the site) – what a waste – for all concerned. The article got me thinking about technology adoption in general and how you go from download / trial to monetization without scaring people away before they’ve had chance to form an opinion of your site / application / service. I like the term Gradual Engagement. But giving the process a name doesn’t make success any more likely. There’s a difficult balance between the successful diffusion of innovation and ‘capturing’ prospects. Still – I like the term – gradual engagement.