We (continue to) live in interesting times. It will be intersting to see how Microsoft fare over the next five years; the knives are drawn - Gartner claims that Microsoft’s troubles are a result of their past success – ie they’re overly burdedned by their installed base in a classic example of the Innovator’s Dilema. In addition – they are increasingly being disrupted by the web – something they’re still trying to “embrace”.
The masses of people NOT moving to Vista presents a great opportunity for the competion (eg. Linux, Mac, the Web) – ie. you don’t really have to compete with Vista – you merely have to compete with Windows2003 (on the server) and XP (on the desktop) and give people a reason to move (cost, escape vendor lock-in).